That said, this race has been very steady. The closest analogue to this election, that of 2004, actually saw the incumbent receiving a slight bounce, while the challenger lost a few points. And 2004, like 2012, featured an early, prior announcement of the vice-presidential nominee by the challenger.
So, there is no guarantee that Romney will jump into the lead following the Republican National Convention. On the other hand, even a 1-point boost for Romney nationally would bring this race to near parity. A small bounce would also suggest the electorate is not static and will shift allegiances under the right circumstances.
No shift would portend very bad news for Romney. The explanatory power of polls jumps considerably after the conventions. If Obama still leads by 1.5 points once the convention dust has settled, it’s difficult for me to envisage how Obama will lose. Conventions are typically the one campaign event that can have big effect on the state of the race.
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