Tea Partiers have made their share of tactical mistakes—such as assuming they could make a constitutional amendment to balance the budget the price of a debt-limit increase. But by and large they have been constructive in pushing the GOP to address our real fiscal and economic problems. The establishment GOP, in turn, has wisely accommodated much of the Tea Party agenda, rather than let reformers splinter into a third party that would guarantee a liberal Congress.
What is the biggest danger to this new GOP? It isn’t the social issues like abortion, unless their advocates are as blinkered as Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin. Americans are closely divided on cultural matters with no party having a clear edge, and religious conservatives have become a core part of the GOP coalition.
The real threat to a GOP return to power is its failure to reach out to minority voters, especially Hispanics. Even if they win 60% of white voters this year, Republicans won’t retain a governing majority for long unless they find a way to appeal to minority voters who are growing as a share of the electorate.
This means fielding more diverse candidates, which the party is beginning to do. But it also means adjusting its rhetoric and policies on immigration. A cranky, crabbed view of immigration sends a cultural message that the GOP doesn’t welcome minority voters, and it contradicts the themes of optimism and growth that appeal to most voters.
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