The first, a conversation I had yesterday with the esteemed political scientist Morris Fiorina, whose office at the Hoover Institution lies a floor below mine. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve taken to sticking my head in Mo’s door, asking the very same question every time. Yesterday, he gave me the very same answer he has been giving me all summer.

ME: Do the polls mean anything yet, Mo?

MO: No…

One of the country’s leading political scientists insists the polls won’t matter until after Labor Day. And if 1980 is anything to go by, even Labor Day may be too early.