Granted, the RCP average had George W. Bush at 42.7 percent at this point in 2004 and he went on to win. So why is 2012 different?

Here’s why: In 2004, the central issues facing the country were a net negative for Bush in July. By November, those issues had become a net positive for him, and Bush won.

It’s hard to see how the central issue facing the country in 2012 is going to become a net positive for Obama.