In my view, the marginal factors in the past four or six weeks have looked slightly better for Mr. Romney than Mr. Obama. The slight recuperation in Mr. Romney’s favorability numbers, for instance — if it was somewhat to be expected and explains some of the tightening in the horse-race numbers — also reduces the risk of whatever downside case scenario there was where Mr. Romney substantially underperformed the economic fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the tumultuous situation in Greece may increase the chance of an economic downside case for Mr. Obama. And data from the domestic economy has not been as strong lately. (Although it might also be mentioned that the situation in the Middle East is thought to be improving and oil pries have receded somewhat.)
Put another way, if you are being very detail oriented, I think there is a case to be made that Mr. Romney’s odds of being elected have improved somewhat over the past six weeks. I suppose we can be even more detail oriented once we get the general election model up and running. If you just want the 30,000-foot view … well, it looks pretty close, as it did before.
