Poll: Obama 44, Romney 32, Paul 18

Not surprisingly, much of the potential support for Paul comes from independent voters. Roughly a quarter of independents who say they would back Obama or Romney in a two-person race say they would switch to Paul if he runs, leaving the independent vote divided almost evenly between Obama (31%), Romney (33%) and Paul (26%). Put in other terms, Obama loses nine percent and Romney 17 percent of independent voters to Ron Paul if he decides to run.

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Not only does Romney lose more independent voters to Ron Paul than does Obama, but a Paul third-party candidacy also threatens to steal away some of the conservative Republican vote as well. Fully 96% of conservative Republicans say they would back Mitt Romney in a two-person race against Obama. But that support falls to 77% in a three-person race, with 19% saying they would switch to backing Ron Paul. There is no comparable loss of support for Obama among either liberal or moderate and conservative Democrats.

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