But pollsters point to the canary-in-the-coalmine factor: if Obama can’t hold these voters, they say, it’s a sign that his wider support among the reliably Democratic electorate of liberals, labor, young people, Jews, African-Americans and other key blocs is withering. They won’t be there in large numbers to put him over the top again in borderline states, and they won’t be there to feed his campaign money and provide volunteer support at the levels they did in 2008…

Given the overwhelmingly Democratic electorate in these states, Quinnipiac polling director Mickey Carroll said he thinks those numbers could serve as proxies for the feelings of core Obama voters far from the Hudson.

“When New York and New Jersey, where he ought to be doing much better, are this low,” Carroll said, “that spreads out. Throw a rock in the water and the ripples go out — it’s not good.”…

The diagnosis for the blue state blues: the economy, frustration with partisan gridlock inside the Beltway, a general anti-establishment feeling and other factors that are largely beyond the president’s control that are bringing everyone down. But for the base, there’s also the succession of heartbreaks, with the belief that Obama did not enough on health care, the stimulus, gay rights and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and anything at all on immigration reform and the rest of the liberal wish list Obama promised he’d get to in the Oval Office.