The second repercussion of New York’s gay-marriage vote is that the prominent media attention it drew is firing up the GOP base, and it will affect the presidential nominating process, starting with the Iowa caucuses. Nearly every prominent GOP presidential candidate now supports a federal marriage amendment.
Let me make one prediction: Herman Cain’s failure to do so in the first New Hampshire debate is going to help stall out his campaign in Iowa and harm his chances of emerging as a serious contender. As the original sponsor of the Minnesota Marriage Amendment, passed by the legislature this spring, Michele Bachmann will benefit.
Third, the New York vote will hurt the New York Republican Party. Gov. Cuomo, along with a handful of Republican donors and a sympathetic media, managed to give Republicans a very inaccurate impression about the consequences of voting for gay marriage. What happened last week in New York is simple politically: Republicans enabled the passage of a bill that will help the governor please the Democratic base in his state and nationally. It simultaneously alienated a significant portion of the Republican base.
Memo to Empire State Republicans: Abandoning your core values to get elected is wrong. Abandoning your core values to help the Democrats get elected is just plain dumb.