Smith, Smedley, and Zook: A flaw in polls of Hispanic voters

The four statewide polls of Latino voters I have conducted in that manner suggest that the assumptions on which Hispanic surname polling relies do not hold up. Significant numbers of Latino voters do not have Hispanic surnames. Furthermore, Latinos that do not have Hispanic surnames are more likely to be U.S.-born Latinos rather than immigrants, resulting in predictable demographic and political differences compared to voters with Hispanic surnames. As a result, any poll of Latino voters that relies only on voters with Hispanic surnames is introducing bias even before the first interview is conducted.