Our final numbers showed that 76% of voters would be white, while the exit polls showed 72% white. This could certainly account for some of the difference between the poll and the actual results, but not all. It also confirms the sense that the Reid campaign did a good job of turning out its base.

One discrepancy that really jumps out, however, are the results among unaffiliated voters. The Rasmussen Reports numbers showed Angle winning these voters by more than 20 percentage points. The exit polls showed her with just a four-point advantage. This strikes us as an especially significant clue because the Angle poll numbers in Nevada were not out of step with the preference of unaffiliated voters for Republicans around the country.

Another important clue can be found in the fact that our final poll showed Angle leading among those who had already voted a week before the election and those who were absolutely certain to vote.