Blumenthal’s favorability rating is 53/39, making him the second most popular Democratic Senate candidate in a competitive race behind only Joe Manchin in West Virginia. That would make him a tough opponent in a blue state even for a strong Republican opponent but that McMahon is not.

Her numbers are the exact inverse of Blumenthal’s with only 39% of voters seeing her positively and 53% having an unfavorable opinion. The only Republican Senate candidates that our most recent polls found with worse favorability numbers than McMahon were Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Christine O’Donnell.