Political guru Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, believes Delaware has very little in common demographically with Alaska and other western states where Tea Party backed candidates have pulled off upsets.
Delaware has trended increasingly Democratic over the past 30 years, and he believes it has a lot more in common with neighboring Pennsylvania where Tea Party backed candidates performed poorly in that state’s May primary.
Sabato plans to move the race to leans Democratic or likely Democratic in his “Crystal Ball” ratings if O’Donnell wins the primary and keep it in the likely Republican or leans Republican category if Castle holds on.
“Republicans look at it this way,” Sabato said. “With Castle, they know they’ll get about 70 percent of his votes [in the Senate] ̶ with the Democrat, they’ll get zero.”