The House is very much in play

Although the Democrats are about as overextended today as they were in 1994 in terms of Democrats in red-leaning districts, this is a very young Democratic Congress. Of the seventy-three Democrats in Republican-leaning districts, forty are serving their first or second terms. This is almost twice as many freshman/sophomore Democrats in such seats as there were in 1994.

Moreover, this interacts with the first point above: With a younger caucus, there are going to be fewer retirements. A Congressman like Vic Snyder or a Senator like Byron Dorgan looks at this year and says “it’s been a good career, I should go out a winner.” But for someone like Steve Driehaus, there’s not much downside to giving this a go, and quite a bit of upside. But this doesn’t mean that there are going to be fewer defeated incumbents, since these Freshmen and Sophomores typically represent the most vulnerable type of incumbents…

When you look at the polling, the conditions on the ground, and the datapoints we have from the races in the past few months, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the GOP can win the House back. This election presently combines the removal of Presidential coattails that drove 1946 in part with the bad economy that drove 1958 with the overambitious agendas that drove 1966 and 1994. If forecasting elections at this point is like forecasting where a hurricane will run aground – the range becomes narrower as the time of impact draws closer – right now a perfect storm is brewing and a GOP takeover of the House is well within it potentially projected path. The storm may dissipate before it runs aground. But it may also intensify. This could get very ugly for the party in power.