Looking forward to the 2026 midterm elections from a year or two out, Republicans faced a favorable Senate map and seemingly realistic prospects for gains in that chamber. Georgia and Michigan, both of which President Trump had carried in 2024, presented possible pickup opportunities, especially after Michigan Democrat Gary Peters announced in January 2025 that he wouldn’t be seeking reelection. Meanwhile, no Republican seat looked overly challenging to defend. The only one the GOP would need to hold in a state Trump had lost was in Maine, where Susan Collins had already triumphed five times since Republicans last carried the state in a presidential race. With a 53-47 Senate majority and this favorable map, Republican control of the Senate looked quite secure for the duration of Trump’s second term, with a chance to increase that margin.
Instead, Republicans emerged from the midterms having lost at least seven Senate seats and probably nine, giving Democrats at least a 54-46 majority, and likely a 56-44 advantage. Republicans somehow lost Senate seats in South Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio all by four percentage points or more based on current tallies. They got flat-out blown out in Texas, losing by 12 points and 1.2 million votes. They lost by five points in Kansas. The last time Democrats won a Senate race there, theatergoers had yet to hear Dorothy say she wasn’t in Kansas anymore. Although they still have a chance in each, Republicans probably also lost in Alaska and—incredibly—Mississippi, where RealClearPolitics didn’t list a single poll because the race wasn’t considered competitive enough to warrant one. They lost Susan Collins, the lone Republican senator who had consistently shown the ability to win on Democratic turf.
On top of all that, Republicans lost in North Carolina by about 20 points and Georgia, which had once looked winnable, by 18 points. In the open seat in Michigan, they faced a controversial candidate with a thin resume and an apparent fondness for radical Islam. His anti-Semitism spurred his Democratic rival to endorse the Republican, Mike Rogers. Yet Rogers lost by seven points. If that weren’t enough, Republicans will lose more than 40 House seats, giving Democrats their first 80-plus-seat House majority since 1992, before the Republican Revolution of 1994. Republicans’ Senate win in Nebraska and narrow Senate and gubernatorial wins in Florida were all that kept the midterms from being the GOP equivalent of Little Bighorn.
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