Elevated gas prices and competitive races in red-leaning states like South Carolina, Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska have made for a tough midterm environment for Republicans. However, the grim headlines for Republicans overlook how thin the margins are in most toss-up races, leaving the GOP a real path to keeping the Senate.
The RealClearPolitics 2026 Senate map has eight toss-up states, and Republicans need to win only four of them to keep control of the chamber. Democrats lead in the RCP Average in every one of those races except Kansas, where the candidates are tied. Many of those polling leads, however, are just one or two points, well within the range where the polls could miss, and the race could go either way.
Republicans’ two strongest toss-up states are in the Midwest: Iowa and Kansas. In Kansas, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall is tied with Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average. Still, Marshall leads with a 63% chance to win the race. In Iowa, Democratic state Sen. Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by 0.6 points in the Average, yet Hinson still leads with a 58% chance to keep the seat in betting markets.
While Democrats lead in both the polls and the betting markets in Texas and Ohio, Republicans still have a significant chance in both states.
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