Record diesel prices did not begin with an American shortage. Rather, they stem from a system that kept betting on unstable regions and suppliers, and from governments here and abroad that let their margin for error wear thin. Washington can ease the pain this fall without resorting to banning diesel exports, and it can leave the country more energy secure in the process.
On September 15, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the average retail diesel price is up more than 77 percent from a year ago. Crude oil explains part, but not all, of the costs associated with diesel fuel. The EIA attributes much of the rest to unusually high refining margins, driven by tight global supplies of distillates like diesel and home heating oil.
In other words, the world is short of refined diesel, not oil in the ground. Yet that is little consolation for American consumers who depend on a transportation and supply network largely powered by it.
Several political and supply shocks hit the market at once. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf ran at about half their pre-war level in August, and diesel exports were roughly a quarter, or 390,000 barrels per day. Either would have moved prices on its own, but Ukrainian strikes have cut Russian refining, and China has curtailed its own fuel exports. Against this international backdrop, global refinery output in August was 4.2 million barrels per day below that of August 2025.
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