Putin’s Next Target May Be NATO Itself

The war in Ukraine is in its fifth year, and thus far, Moscow has been unable to break Kyiv’s stubborn resistance. However, there are indications that the coming fall and winter may prove decisive for the conflict, and that this time Putin intends not only to ratchet up military pressure in Ukraine but also to threaten NATO itself along the Nordic/Baltic Northeast Corridor.

The staccato of Russian clandestine operations on allied territory, including the recent attempted drone attack at the Leipzig airport, a foiled plot to set fire to four drone-manufacturing sites in Swindon, UK, a fire at the WB Electronics UAV components production center in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland, and attempts to sabotage railroads across Europe, has been accompanied by an increasing number of cases of Russian drones, missiles, and aircraft brazenly entering NATO airspace. There are troubling indicators that Putin may be planning to further pressure NATO, possibly including a direct kinetic operation.

The nighttime curfew on the border with Russian-speaking Narva has already heightened tensions in Estonia. Railroad construction in Belarus is expanding to handle more military trains, while Russia and Belarus are integrating their transportation networks more closely, putting Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania on notice.

Even more troubling is Russia’s investment in military infrastructure along its border with Finland. Russia is preparing new facilities around Petrozavodsk, roughly 150 miles from the Finnish border, with satellite imagery showing the renovation of a largely dormant Soviet-era garrison and the construction of new barracks. Russia is also constructing a new military complex at Lupche-Savino—only 68 miles from the Finnish border—for a new artillery brigade and other elements. Satellite analysis suggests that this is particularly significant because permanent infrastructure is being built to support additional Russian forces, rather than equipment merely moving through the area for the Ukrainian front.