Alaska: The Sleeper Race That Could Decide Senate Control

As the prognosticators and planners inside the Acela corridor were rolling out of bed last Wednesday morning, the votes in Alaska’s open Senate primary were still being counted. The former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola had opened a commanding lead over the Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, notching 48.1 percent to Sullivan’s 42.7 percent (a margin that, with most of the votes now counted, has continued to hold).

Last week’s race doesn’t determine who gets Alaska’s Senate seat; rather, the nonpartisan primary simply narrows a crowded field to the top four vote-getters, who will then advance to a November general election that will be decided by ranked-choice voting. Both the GOP and Democratic nominees have cleared that bar comfortably. But the incumbent Republican will not be the only Dan Sullivan on the ballot in November. Dan Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher and registered Republican, recently won a legal fight to stay in the race despite accusations of sabotage by the Alaska Republican Party. 

With the midterm congressional elections less than three months away, Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate. Democrats must pick up four seats to win the majority, a prospect that seemed unthinkable when President Donald Trump took back the White House in November 2024. But as the American economy struggles under the weight of the Iran War, and Trump’s approval numbers crater to historic lows, Democrats are surging nationally. And Alaska is one of the places where the shift is showing up.

Peltola’s strong performance wasn’t entirely surprising, even in a state Trump carried twice. The first Alaska Native and first woman to represent Alaska in Congress, Peltola made a name for herself as an independent operator in Washington, DC. Though a registered Democrat, Peltola has defended the oil industry vital to the Alaskan economy, supported gun rights in a state that lives for hunting, and shown a willingness to work with Trump when it could benefit her constituents, regardless of how it might look to other congressional Democrats. Running on the slogan of “Fish, Family, and Freedom,” Peltola highlighted her independent streak with a timely ad released on social media early Wednesday morning as the results were being finalized.