Merkel, Ukraine, and the Long Tail of Finlandization

At the launch of her memoirs, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel explained that one reason for keeping Ukraine outside NATO was the perceived success of Finland: a non-aligned Nordic country that neighbored Russia, but had a prosperous economy and a well-functioning society.

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The reasoning, shared by many policymakers beyond Merkel, was straightforward. If Finland could prosper as a non-aligned neighbor of Russia, why couldn’t Ukraine do the same? By serving as a “bridge” between Russia and NATO, Kyiv might benefit from its position as an economic, political, and cultural gateway linking the European Union (EU) and the then-emerging, Russian-run Eurasian Union.

The events of 2022 demonstrated that Finland’s policy of non-alignment was less sustainable than many had assumed. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Helsinki moved rapidly toward NATO membership. Thanks to its strong military capabilities and the political commitment of the Biden administration, the accession process proceeded relatively smoothly despite the war raging just across the border. Since then, Finland has proven itself a valuable ally.

Viewed over the longer term, however, the legacy of Finnish-Russian relations is far more complicated.

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