Economic Confidence on the Right Gets Wobbly Again

With only five and a half months to go before the midterm elections, Republican optimism about the economy is struggling against the tides of high gasoline prices, the renewed rise in inflation, and a market increasingly convinced that interest rates are not coming down soon.

Republicans have not suddenly turned gloomy. They are still relatively optimistic about the economy. But the latest Economist/YouGov polling suggests that the economic optimism on the right has become less steady, less overwhelming, and less able to offset the deep pessimism among Democrats, liberals, and Harris voters.

The polls show a roller-coaster ride among Trump-aligned voters, who moved from strong optimism in February to a spring slump, then to a late-April recovery, and then to another retreat in May.

The biggest moves have been in the answers to the survey question asking whether the economy is getting better or worse. This may be the most politically important economic question in the poll. Voters can tolerate an imperfect economy if they believe it is improving. They are less forgiving when they begin to doubt the direction.