Dems and the Wood Chipper or Dems in the Wood Chipper?

On April 21, Virginia voters narrowly approved a statewide referendum that sets in motion a mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at shifting Virginia’s Congressional delegation from its current 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans to 10 Democrats and 1 Republican. I previously wrote about this effort in “Release the SpanKraken!: Virginia Democrats’ cartographic creature extends a tangle of tentacles from the DC suburbs that its mighty mandibles might masticate four GOP representatives.” Voter approval of the referendum has been regarded as a major victory for the state’s Democrats. Here, we’ll ask about the potential for the referendum to become a self-affixed “KICK ME” sign—damaging Democrats by [1] Energizing Republicans; [2] Failing on Election Day; [3] Inviting judicial override; [4] Damaging Governor Spanberger’s credibility; and [5] Offering justification to Republican gerrymandering in other states.

[1] THE REFERENDUM MAY HAVE ANGERED AND ENERGIZED VIRGINIA REPUBLICANS TO A SURPRISING DEGREE.

Despite a massive effort by Democrats and little response from Republicans, the referendum barely passed statewide. Democrats spent around $70 million on this referendum, made Barack Obama a 24/7 presence on TV and web, worded the referendum in such a way as to invite judicial overturn, and still only won by a 3-percent margin, compared with Governor Abigail Spanberger’s 15-percent margin five months earlier.

Analysts will ponder how much ill will was engendered by the use of the word “fairness” on the ballot measure and in pro-redistricting advertising. Despite a judicial principle that ballot measures ought to be worded in neutral fashion, the April 21 ballot explicitly stated that the purpose of redistricting was to “restore fairness” to the state’s Congressional district map. This measure is designed to discard a map where Republicans currently hold 45% of the seats in favor of a map where Republicans seem on course to hold only 9% of the seats—in a state that cast 46% of its votes for Trump in 2024, where Republicans held all three statewide elected offices until three months ago, and where 48.5% of the state’s voters voted “no” on this referendum.