Both reports are likely to point to a modest pickup from February. For retail sales, part of the gain may reflect firmer prices and support from tax refunds. But the bigger question is whether real, inflation-adjusted spending is holding up. The consumer still looks resilient, though more selective and cautious than a year ago.
On housing, there is less need to wait for the NAR report because Zillow already provides a timelier read on contract activity. Zillow’s March market report showed 281,546 newly pending listings, the second-highest monthly total since August 2022. Newly pending sales were up 4.6% from a year earlier and nearly 30% from February, the strongest March showing since 2021. Zillow attributes that strength to pent-up demand after three years of weak sales, weather-related disruption that softened activity in January and February, and a somewhat improved affordability picture from a year ago.
That suggests the home shopping season is still underway and that households had not fully pulled back as of March. Even so, the boost may prove temporary if energy prices stay elevated, mortgage rates remain high, or the labor market softens further. Zillow has already marked down its 2026 existing-home-sales outlook because higher-than-previously-expected mortgage rates could weigh on demand.
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