After weeks of threats, taunts, bombs, dramatic rescues, and careening markets, the world is holding its breath as the two-week ceasefire begins in the Middle East. The United States and Israel inflicted a significant amount of damage on Iran during the most recent campaign, but the negotiations set to begin later this week in Pakistan could determine the victor of this stage in the conflict.
These negotiations can only occur if the ceasefire holds, which is already under question. All sides seem to agree on the broad outlines of the deal, that hostilities will pause for two weeks and the Strait of Hormuz will open during that period. But Iran now claims that the deal requires Israel to stop its campaign against Hezbollah, and Israel and the United States do not agree. If Iran’s leaders attempt to close the Strait, that will violate one of President Trump’s red lines and, presumably, restart the fighting.
If Iran caves on its attempt to shield Hezbollah from its foolhardy decision to attack Israel again, the real negotiations can proceed. Publicly, Iran has stuck to a 10-point plan that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed Wednesday as "fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded. It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team." The mullahs seem to have sent a different set of points that Trump called "a workable basis on which to negotiate" in his ceasefire announcement. "It's not good enough," he added the next morning, "but it's a very significant step."
Those terms are not yet known, but Trump’s demands are. The ceasefire will hold, "subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz." Wednesday morning, he added "there will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove" the nuclear material buried in last summer’s strike.
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