After Poland, Georgia, and Romania, it was clear that the Hungarian elections would be the next testing ground for the EU’s electoral interventionism, with the underlying risk that Brussels and certain other capitals might mistake their wishes for reality.
Their wish is simple. After four outright majorities and countless conflicts, and after years of despising Orbán, they can only envisage one possible outcome: A crushing victory for his opponent, Péter Magyar, even before the campaign has begun. For months, the mantra has been playing on a loop in chancelleries and newsrooms: Orbán is supposedly trailing far behind his rival, who is racing ahead with a staggering 15 to 20-point lead in some polls, amplified by social media and a pro-federalist intelligentsia for whom the result is already a foregone conclusion.
The reality is that these elections will be tight, just as they were in 2022, and will be decided along political, ideological, geographic, and generational lines, as in other countries. On one side, an incumbent Prime Minister in power for 16 years, the most experienced among his peers, Brussels’ nemesis, with a stable electorate among older voters and, generally, outside Budapest. On the other side, a maverick, controversial candidate with no experience, highly active on social media, popular in Budapest and among young voters, under the influence of the European People’s Party and adept at double-speak. A hard-fought contest that will be decided at the ballot box and that Fidesz could very well…win, as evidenced by the recent result of a by-election.
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