The preservation of the corrupt, sanctioned, repressive regime in Tehran is a critically important outcome for Moscow. It will have watched with enormous (self) interest and will be drawing conclusions from the Iranian theocracy’s at least initial, blood-soaked success in forcing protesters off the streets.
So, what lessons might the Kremlin have taken from the biggest protests in Iran since the 1979 revolution?
Lesson One: Inflation Above All Else
In terms of maintaining stability, it’s more important to control inflation than promote economic growth.
Inflation in Iran has been high for decades, rarely dropping below 10% a year since the revolution. It’s been in double figures since the pandemic, peaking at 46% three years ago, before easing to 33% in a year, according to the World Bank.
At the same time, the economy has grown at an average of 4.5% for several years. Falling oil prices and war with Israel will push inflation back up to 44% in the current financial year amid an economic downturn, the World Bank estimates. It was this latest round of price hikes that triggered the protests.
On this front, Russia has relatively few worries. Thanks to draconian measures from the Central Bank, inflation is falling and running at about one-tenth the pace in Iran. Although price rises for food and essential goods are higher than the overall figure, Iranian-style price surges are unimaginable in Russia under current conditions.
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