The big story in the Census Bureau’s newly released 2025 Population Estimates is an enormous decline in net international migration (NIM) — the difference between the total number of people entering and leaving the country. The Bureau reports significantly fewer foreign-born people arrived, and more departed than in prior years. The decline in new arrivals reflects fewer refugees admitted and a large falloff in the number of people released at the border.
The new estimates measure the last six months of Biden’s term and the first six months of Trump’s, mid-2024 to mid-2025. The Bureau projects NIM for mid-2025 to mid-2026 will slow further due to a further large decline in foreign-born immigration (arrivals) and an increase in emigration (departures), if trends continue.
The Bureau’s new estimate of net international migration indicates that the flow of illegal immigrants into the country responds to policy choices and is not uncontrollable, as was so often asserted, including during the Biden administration. Some of Biden’s changes at the end of his term and Trump’s policies in the first part of this year fundamentally changed the level of illegal immigration.
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