Russia and Venezuela—Toward a New Yalta?

The Kremlin’s response to Nicolas Maduro’s ousting has, so far, been notably muted. Aside from pro forma Foreign Ministry criticism of US actions and expressions of solidarity with Interim President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez’ government, neither Vladimir Putin nor his ubiquitous press spokesman Dmitry Peskov have uttered a word. And yet Venezuela has for decades been a significant Russian client state and anchor of Russian influence in Latin America. Could it be that Putin sees a silver lining in this latest apparent blow to Russia interests?

Putin has praised the Yalta system—when the USSR and the United States divided the world between them—as the model for international order: “The Yalta system was truly born in travail. Let’s be fair: it helped humankind pass through turbulent, and at times dramatic, events of the last seven decades. It saved the world from large-scale upheavals.” He understands that the reassertion of US dominance in the Western hemisphere will enable Russia to achieve two major goals—it will reassert its right to dominate its sphere of influence, after three decades of US attempts to prevent that. And it will have reduced incentives to make concessions on Ukraine.

Since Hugo Chavez’s rise to power, Russia has viewed Venezuela as a key client state in the United States’ backyard. It provided intelligence support to Venezuela, training its security forces and selling arms to Caracas. Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin was Russia’s point man in Venezuela, loaning billions of dollars to the country and in partnership with PDVSA seeking to revive its faltering oil industry. Rosneft had to pull back after the imposition of energy-related sanctions following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Venezuela now owes Rosneft upwards of $2 billion out of a $6 billion debt to Russia—none of which may ever be repaid.

The Kremlin also helped Maduro to remain in power after the disputed 2018 election, when the Trump administration recognized his opponent Juan Guaido as the legitimate president. After the attempted 2019 uprising by forces loyal to Guaido, Russia dissuaded Maduro from leaving the country to go into exile.

Despite decades of investment in Venezuela, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s official response to Maduro’s ouster was weak: “We reaffirm our solidarity with the Venezuelan people and our support for the course of their Bolivarian leadership, which is aimed at protecting the country’s national interests and sovereignty.” Perhaps the muted response reflects Putin’s desire not to antagonize Donald Trump while negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war continue and Russia wants to avoid U.S. additional punitive measures.