The Akkadians. The Maya. The Tang Dynasty of China. The Chaco. The Indus Civilization. These diverse societies, separated by oceans and continents, each persisted for hundreds of years. They had large cities, transcendent architecture, organized agriculture, and regional power. Yet each ultimately collapsed. Their downfalls all looked a little different, but they shared one simple yet foundational contributor: a lack of water. Whether due to drought, mismanagement, or a combination of the two, these civilizations ran dry and died. It is for this reason that recent news out of Iran should not be ignored.
The country is grappling with its worst water crisis in decades. Satellite imagery analyzed by experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals the shortage to be potentially catastrophic and accelerating. Four of the five reservoirs feeding Tehran, Iran's capital city of 9.7 million people, experienced steep decreases in surface water between June and November. Two of them shrank by more the 70 percent, far exceeding expected seasonal variation, while two others receded by 28 percent and 20 percent.
To put it bluntly, Tehran's fresh water is running out, a fact that even the country's authoritarian government cannot hide. A month ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian even floated the notion of evacuating the capital itself if rain does not arrive soon in needed quantities. Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city with a population of four million, is in a similar predicament. Its water reserves register below three percent.
Considering Iran's present drought conditions have persisted for six years now, it's highly unlikely that the nation will get the precipitation that many of its inhabitants, encouraged by the country's ruling clerics, are praying for.
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