Across Europe, nations have signaled a desire to dig, wire, and network their frontiers. From the Baltic Defense Line and the European Union’s proposed “drone wall” to Finland’s pilot barriers and Poland’s East Shield, the continent has embarked upon its most significant defensive hardening since the Cold War. Rather than nostalgia for the trenches, this effort represents a calculated adaptation to the war in Ukraine, one designed to ensure aggression is neither quick nor cheap.
That strategic shift began at NATO’s Madrid Summit in 2022, when the alliance moved from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial. The old idea accepted that territory might be lost before being recaptured. The new concept aims to prevent that loss in the first place. The following year, at Vilnius, the alliance made this real through new regional defense plans, aligning national barriers, forward-deployed forces, and reinforcement corridors under a single theater-wide framework.
However, a gap remains between political announcements and physical reality. Allies possess the right vision, yet resourcing lags rhetoric. While nations have agreed to scale the eight forward-deployed multinational battlegroups from battalions to brigade-size units, the war in Ukraine demonstrates the sheer density of forces required for a proper defense. As Kyiv employs over 100 brigades to counter Russia’s advance, it becomes clear that eight brigades are far too few.
To be sure, the alliance’s plans call for mobilizing follow-on forces far larger than these eight initial brigades. Yet, even this reinforcement strategy collides with hard reality. Europe is facing a continental manpower crisis. Major powers, particularly Germany and the United Kingdom, simply lack the personnel to fully staff the formations needed to backstop NATO’s eastern flank.
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