Paris is aflutter with talk of that poll – the one showing that Jordan Bardella would easily beat all potential rivals in the second round of 2027’s presidential election. The details behind those results demonstrate why conservative populism is gaining ground – and how its ultimate triumph still requires nuance and skill.
Bardella will be National Rally’s candidate should Marine LePen remain disqualified from running after the appeal of her recent conviction regarding misuse of public funds while an MEP. The Olaxe poll showed him easily beating Edouard Phillipe, the head of the centre-right Horizons party within Emmanuel Macron’s presidential majority, by a 53-47 margin. That was the best a non-RN candidate fared against Bardella.
The poll showed a clear pattern: The farther Left his opponent, the larger his margin. He would crush the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon by a 74-26 landslide, while he would still beat the centre-left Raphael Glucksmann by 58-42. Centrist former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal would fare better, but even he would still lose by twelve points, 56-44.
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