The Future of Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles in the Maritime Battlespace

Introduction

Unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) have revolutionized air- and land-based warfare by shifting the balance of power by providing inexpensive alternatives to traditional, high-impact platforms. The maritime battlespace – long dominated by capital ships, submarines, and aviation – is positioned for a fundamental transformation as UAVs increasingly play a central role in naval strategy. Policymakers and military leaders must grapple with the implications of this paradigm shift, as unmanned systems blur the lines between deterrence, escalation, and asymmetric warfare.

The Current Maritime Drone Landscape

Maritime forces are already experimenting with unmanned platforms. The U.S. Navy has invested in systems like Boeing’s MQ-25 Stingray, an unmanned tanker designed to extend the reach of carrier air wings as well as smaller unmanned surface vehicles. Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) are being tested for reconnaissance, ship hull inspection, and mine countermeasures, such as General Dynamics Bluefin series and Northrop Grumman’s Manta Ray. Likewise, Ukraine has demonstrated the disruptive potential of low-cost, explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels (USVs), such as the Sea Baby 2024, against Russian Black Sea Fleet assets, revealing how small, inexpensive drones can damage or deter much larger naval forces. These developments signal a shift where unmanned systems are no longer supplementary but key capabilities in maritime warfare.

The Evolution Toward Maritime Drone Swarms

The most immediate and destabilizing evolution will likely be the deployment of maritime drone swarms. A naval “hellscape” could overwhelm a carrier strike group’s layered defenses by saturating radars, depleting missile interceptors, or striking from multiple vectors simultaneously, similarly to Ukraine’s operation dubbed “Spider’s Web” in 2024. A recent article in China’s Weaponry Magazine explains that such swarm tactics could fundamentally alter the cost-benefit calculus of naval engagements, where a few million dollars of drones might neutralize platforms worth billions. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy now allow air, surface, and subsurface drones to coordinate with minimal human control.