National Public Radio (NPR) recently posted an article titled, “3 massive changes you’ll see as the climate careens toward tipping points,” by Rebecca Hersher and Lauren Sommer, which claims that coral reefs, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and Arctic permafrost are approaching dangerous, near-irreversible climate “tipping points.” NPR’s claims are false. There is no evidence that coral reefs, the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, or Arctic permafrost are caught in a loop of inevitable decline due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Data show that other factors are at play, and that the so-called tipping points are far from certain.
Let’s start with Greenland. As Climate at a Glance: Greenland Ice Melt discusses, Greenland contains roughly three million gigatons of ice – a value so large it is nearly impossible to comprehend. Even during the highly publicized melt years of the past decade, annual losses represent less than 0.01 percent of the total ice sheet. (See the figure, below). Further, as documented by NASA’s GRACE satellite gravity analysis, the observed mass losses from all sources contribute well under a millimeter per year to global sea level. The minimal recorded loss of ice mass is in large part due to the fact that ice that has melted refroze before ever reaching the sea.
NPR omits this important context entirely and also ignores major research showing that a substantial portion of recent Greenland surface melt is driven by darkened, low-albedo “dirty ice,” caused by soot, dust, and microbial darkening, not simply by rising air temperature.
Ironically, the NPR article itself provides a photo of “dirty ice” with apparently oblivious scientific researchers trekking across it, seen below.
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