Mohammed bin Salman got a royal welcome to Washington this week. President Donald Trump greeted the Saudi crown prince with a horseback procession, a lavish banquet, and even a fighter jet flyover. This pomp did not go over well in Washington, which Bin Salman has not visited since the death of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and fierce critic of the crown prince. Many Americans see no reason to roll out the red carpet for a ruler on whose hands they see plenty of red already.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the American republic have usually had a contentious relationship, but events keep forcing this odd couple back together. The two pillars of the relationship—strategic and economic—are now growing wobbly, and Trump is trying to refound them. Although the specific circumstances of the partnership are changing rapidly, the kingdom’s value to Americans remains high.
The Americans and Saudis have had plenty of spats since Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz Al Saud on Valentine’s Day, 1945, but the two sides have smoothed things over because they ultimately have had too much in common to split up. Neither country wants anyone else to dominate the Middle East, so their strategic thinking is largely aligned. Both sides also wanted to keep oil prices and oil markets stable. For Washington, stable energy markets make the price at the pump acceptable at home and keep the global economy humming. Riyadh wants to keep the price low enough that alternatives are unattractive.
The United States is changing, however. American greens are hellbent on ending the fossil fuel economy, and shale drillers have turned the United States into a net oil exporter. Similar shifts are occurring elsewhere. The increase in global oil supply, and the threat of eventual reduced demand, is forcing the Saudis to diversify their economy and modernize their society.
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