Recent footage of shabby Russian troops advancing in Pokrovsk on motorcycles, converted pickup trucks and other civilian vehicles has drawn comparisons with familiar scenes of militias from the Syrian Civil War or Islamic State terrorist columns on the move across Iraq in 2014-17. The rag-tag, improvised “Franken-army” look of the Russian forces as they push forward in the Donbas can only play into the narrative of those who regard Putin’s war as a failure for Moscow and Putin himself as a bungling strategist who is only diminishing Russia and its power. There is even a famous, long-time and very funny X parody account dedicated to making fun of Putin’s strategic acumen and to presenting him as a serial “loser”. If only it were so.
Unfortunately for the West, and Europe in particular, the best that can be said objectively about Putin’s overall strategic performance is that “the jury is still out”. Only when the guns fall silent and some kind of peace is agreed upon will we have an actual, precise basis for judging how well or badly he’s done for Russia.
What about so far? The case that Putin is an awful strategist – a widespread view among the most eminent of the West’s own strategic minds – rests on the basic view that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was an epic blunder. Not only has Putin failed to take Kyiv in three days and defeat and perhaps occupy most of Ukraine, but he has become stuck in a hugely expensive war in blood and treasure. And for what? He can’t even take the Donbas.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member