Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object approximately 53–67 meters wide that was discovered in December 2024.
While initial models suggested a small chance of Earth impact, refined tracking now indicates that there is no risk to Earth, but about a 4% probability that it will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
Earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 drew global attention when its estimated chance of striking Earth in 2032 reached 3%. Although further observations have since ruled out any risk to our planet, interest in the asteroid has not faded.
As the asteroid moved out of range of even the most advanced telescopes, calculations left a remaining 4% probability that it could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032.
This impact risk is expected to stay unchanged until the asteroid becomes visible again in mid-2028.
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