Eight months into the new U.S. administration and nothing suggests progress in ending the war in Ukraine. But the jostling within and among NATO member states has opened important questions about Europe’s role as well as that of the United States.
From the Italian perspective, Moscow is not a direct enemy. Both geography and Russia’s current military weakness make an invasion of Italy highly unrealistic. After more than three years of attrition in Ukraine, Russia lacks the strength to project power toward the Peninsula.
The real threat for Rome lies to the south. Containing Russia on the northern front will fall primarily to countries that are geographically more exposed. Italy’s strategic focus must instead be on its vulnerabilities in the Mediterranean and North Africa. If rearmament is to make sense, it should not prepare for a land invasion that is unlikely to come, but for strategic control of the southern flank – where Russia and Turkey are actively competing for influence, and where Italy’s national interests are most directly at stake.
Moscow is not preparing for a conventional war in southern Europe, but is expanding hybrid power through Libya and the Red Sea. In Libya, Russia backs Libyan National Army commander General Khalifa Haftar; the rebranded “Africa Corps” – successor to Wagner – has deployed armored vehicles, air-defense systems, and combat aircraft. U.S. Africa Command has confirmed the presence of heavy Russian equipment on the ground. In the Red Sea, Moscow has signed a 25-year agreement with Sudan to establish a naval base in Port Sudan, granting access for up to four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels. This would give Russia a permanent foothold at one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints, with direct access through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. For Italy, the threat is clear: Russia is no longer just a northeastern problem, but a southern one — pressing on the Mediterranean flank where the Italian peninsula is most exposed.
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