In the Short Term, There Will Be No Peace

The most important piece of history of the ongoing war in Ukraine was perhaps written by Barry Posen in February 2025, exactly three years from the start of the conflict. In “Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine”, Posen articulates the structural causes of the conflict and cautions against undue optimism. It is worthy advice, and one that I second. In the recent podcast episode, I mentioned why I am not very optimistic about the ongoing peace process, and why I think this might only lead to disappointment. 

Consider that there need to be three things for a peace process to succeed. First, both sides must feel that they are incapable of reversing the gains of the other side. Second, both sides must make a compromise, and the best compromise would leave both sides furious and disappointed. Third, the external agents and parties must appeal to their best instincts and try to stop the ongoing carnage. The current peace talks show that none of those three conditions are satisfied. 

None of the variables currently match. There is no evidence that either Russian or Ukrainian strategists believe that they want a negotiated settlement, contrary to public polls in Ukraine. (The much-ballyhooed polls are practically meaningless in a country where normal political processes have been suspended.) Both sides are under the impression that they can prevail in a conflict and attrition of arms. On top of that, President Volodymyr Zelensky thinks he can outlast Trump and the Republicans, at least two more years. While the Russians are technically winning in a battlefield, it’s not in a scale or scope fast enough to coerce a rapid collapse of Ukrainian arms.

Consider that the Russian Pokrovsk campaign started in July last year: not a pace of advancement one can consider decisive. Russia is also fighting the combined GDP of Europe and America, and to prevail over that is a tall order. Second, both the Ukrainians and the Russians have a grudge, and it appears the Europeans want to continue the conflict or at least guide the Trump admin towards a war aim where the conflict is continued in some form.