The July jobs report landed with a thud—just 73,000 new payrolls, almost all in health care and social assistance. And then came the fireworks: President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, the press corps exploded, and every economic commentator from Cambridge to Stanford and from Chicago to New Orleans dusted off their prewritten essays on authoritarianism and statistical independence. But as usual, the outrage machine missed the real story.
The May and June revisions weren’t just large. They were historically large by any standard and especially by the standards of our post-pandemic data environment, where early estimates have admittedly grown less reliable. These weren’t “routine” corrections. They were the statistical equivalent of a trapdoor opening beneath our feet.
Let’s be precise. The BLS initially reported 147,000 jobs added in June. In the second estimate, that number was slashed by 133,000, leaving a final gain of just 14,000. May looked healthier at first—144,000 added—but two rounds of revisions later, the month closed out with just 19,000 jobs. The total downward revision across May and June: 258,000.
That two-month swing is the largest non-pandemic revision in modern history. And we’re not using “largest” in the rhetorical sense. We mean statistically, demonstrably, and unequivocally.
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