As the global geopolitical order recalibrates in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the escalating rivalry between Washington and Beijing, one longstanding assumption—that economic interdependence can temper political discord—is quickly losing currency. This unraveling is especially visible in the evolving and increasingly uneasy relationship between China and the European Union. With the China-EU summit set for July 24 in Beijing, expectations are conspicuously muted. Both parties speak of dialogue, but few anticipate breakthroughs.
This pessimism stems from a growing awareness that the rift is more structural than circumstantial. Beneath diplomatic pleasantries lie profound disagreements over governance, strategic interests, and foundational values. When Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently told EU High Representative Josep Borrell that “Beijing does not want to see Russia fail in Ukraine,” he was not just stating policy—he was underscoring a hard geopolitical line. For Brussels, this stance is indefensible. For Beijing, it is strategically indispensable.
The End of Compartmentalization: When Trade Stops Bridging Politics
For years, European policymakers sustained a delicate balancing act: treating economic cooperation with China as a sphere insulated from wider political and ideological differences. This model of compartmentalization worked—until it didn’t. The Trump administration’s unilateralism provided temporary cover for European hedging, but the war in Ukraine forced a strategic reckoning.
China’s posture has fundamentally shifted. Where Europe still talks in the language of rules, norms, and reciprocity, Beijing speaks the idiom of power, hierarchy, and conditionality. Economic relations, once framed as mutually beneficial, are now perceived by China as strategic levers—tools to shape the global order in its favor.
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