Thai-Cambodia Clashes Could Be Death Knell for Shinawatra Rule

Thailand and Cambodia edged closer to full-blown war today (July 24) after Cambodian forces launched artillery attacks on civilian targets in Thai territory and Thailand responded with aerial strikes on Cambodian military camps.

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The armed exchanges mark a significant escalation of weeks of low-intensity skirmishes that saw the killing of at least one Cambodian soldier in May and the wounding of five Thai soldiers, one critically, this week from freshly laid land mines in contested border areas.  

The armed confrontation will test Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc cohesion while sparking speculation about great power alignment and intervention. Cambodia reportedly launched Chinese-made shells into Thai territory while Bangkok scrambled US-procured F-16 jets to retaliate.

The bigger speculation, however, will swirl around the survival of Thailand’s already wobbly coalition government and potential for a new military coup now that chest-thumping and saber-rattling have graduated to artillery shelling and aerial bombardments.

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