In the first six months of President Donald Trump’s second term, one major theme has defined Trump’s economic record thus far: success that surprises the people who are paid to predict it.
It hasn’t been surprising for the president, who is carrying out his promise to revamp American manufacturing and boost American jobs, mainly by imposing unprecedented tariffs on nearly every country in the world. And it comes as economists who predicted large-scale inflation and market downturn over Trump’s bold economic agenda keep seeing economic metrics come across their desks showing the opposite.
Earlier this year, Americans were told to brace their wallets for rising inflation and prepare for a recession caused by Trump’s major tariffs, especially those levied on America’s biggest trading partners, China, Canada, and Mexico. In May, Goldman Sachs analysts said core goods inflation could hit 6.3% by the end of the year while consumer prices would spike 3.7% by early 2026, according to CNN.
The latest numbers on the U.S. economy fly in the face of the naysayers, branded by Trump as “panicans.” Late last week, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that June retail sales were up 0.6% from May and up 3.5% from last year. Food service and drinks sales jumped 6.6% from June 2024. Those numbers were, of course, better than what economists had predicted — a phrase that has become a monthly tradition since Trump stepped back into the White House
Join the conversation as a VIP Member