NATO’s 5% Defense Pledge and Italy: Can It? Will It?

Reaching NATO’s 3.5% of GDP target for core defense spending for debt-ridden and politically fractured countries like Italy will be a challenge. 

Even with financial support from the European Union’s ReArm Europe Plan and SAFE program, Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s coalition needs to navigate major obstacles to achieve the commitments. 

To reach 3.5% by 2035, Italy must spend at least an additional €165bn ($194bn). This is politically and fiscally very difficult, given Italy’s high public debt (135% of GDP), low GDP growth (0.7%), and the diverse composition of Meloni’s coalition (which includes a Kremlin-friendly party) and defense-averse voters.

Italy’s armed forces certainly need the money. One central element of any new plan should be to bolster military recruitment and critical infrastructure. By investing in the country and its youth, Meloni will strike patriotic tones admired by the center-right, so gaining traction with traditional holdouts.