Options for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility

In order to achieve its stated objective of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel will need to take out a key Iranian facility, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Fordow is buried deep under a mountain near Qom and is believed to be one of the key sites of Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, about 54,000 square feet in size, with 3,000 centrifuges. Due to its hardening and depth, Israel lacks the ordnance to take out Fordow on its own in the short term; however, multiple strikes from the U.S. GBU-57, carried out by U.S. B-2 bombers, could destroy the facility. It has been reported that President Trump is weighing his options for whether or not to strike Fordow. On the one hand, Israel’s attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear assets have created a unique opportunity for significantly undermining the country’s potential for developing nuclear weapons. Given the administration’s stated nonproliferation objectives, with JD Vance stating, “the president hates nuclear proliferation. I hate nuclear proliferation”, striking Fordow could be a tempting prospect. On the other hand, using the GBU-57 would constitute direct support for Israel and have the potential to escalate and drag the United States into another war in the region.

The destruction of Fordow is shaping up to be a Rubicon as the crisis escalates. The GBU-57 may not fully destroy the facility, so regardless of Trump’s decision, Fordow will likely remain a challenge for nonproliferation efforts. There are at least five options for destroying Fordow. All of them will have varying degrees of impact on Iran’s nuclear program, along with unique risks of escalation and international response. Below is an analysis of all five options; however, to avoid escalation while still achieving nonproliferation objectives, Israeli sabotage appears to be an underappreciated option.

The GBU-57 and U.S. Support

The United States is the only country with conventional ordnance to penetrate the depths of Fordow. The GBU-57 has never been used in combat, but has been put through extensive testing; it is believed the United States has approximately 20 of the bombs available. The bomb was intended to serve as a deterrent to prevent states from relying on hardened and deeply buried targets. The GBU-57 can be dropped with extreme precision, meaning it could hit the same exact target repeatedly.

Use of the GBU-57 comes with numerous risks. First and foremost, it could fail to completely destroy the facility. The exact details of Fordow remain somewhat of a mystery, and even International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, who previously visited the site, indicated after Israeli strikes that there may be additional facilities up to a half mile underground. Direct U.S. intervention poses another critical risk: immediate exposure of U.S. troops, embassies, and regional interests, which Iran has explicitly threatened to target. Further, such involvement could spark other key actors to get involved, threatening horizontal escalation beyond Iran and vertical escalation with increasing levels of force. Another player would be Moscow, which remains a close Iranian partner and has repeatedly offered to play a role in dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, such as by taking its stockpile of enriched uranium. Nonetheless, the GBU-57 appears to be the best bet by conventional military means for taking out Fordow and delivering a decisive setback to Iran’s nuclear program. This could send an important message not only about Iran’s nuclear status, but also about the United States’ commitment to nonproliferation.