Since 2011, my graduate Red Team class at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs has had a final exercise in which the students play an Iranian reaction to what actually just happened with Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program. In the game, the students play the main Iranian government factions. They are deciding how to react to a Blue (American) proposal designed to contain the crisis before it becomes a major regional conflict. In the game the students play against Blue but also against each other to influence the Supreme Leader’s final decision regarding how to react to the American proposal.

Over the years, the final outcome has largely been determined by the relations between Tehran and whatever administration was in power in Washington. Every year, I have anticipated a need for a new scenario expecting that Israel would strike. This year, it finally happened.

The student groups play the three power factions in Iran. These include the Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Executive Branch (which includes the office of the President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs). A Supreme leader is selected from the class and tasked with making the final decision. This is what is called a Complex (multi-sided) Seminar War Game (or simulation). During the course of the semester the students study the motivations of their group in preparation for the game.

Not surprisingly, the Guardian Council group is primarily interested in staying in power and protecting the hereditary land ownership that makes them the primary landlords and agricultural power in Iran. The IRGC has two primary interests. First, as they guys with the guns, they control the population and quell unrest. Second, this is a “for profit” organization which owns the nuclear program. They will resist any attempt to seriously control or curtail their attempt to get nuclear weapons. Finally, the Administration Team represents what passes as adult supervision in Iran. They are primarily interested in seeing that the crisis not escalate into a full borne regional war, but they are also the weakest faction.