Africa’s minerals industry got a wake-up call when Signal Risk director Ronak Gopaldas and Rohitesh Dhawan, president and CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), wrote that “Africa’s resource-rich countries must recalibrate their strategies” in response to recent global turbulence.

The decade-long trade wars, pandemic-induced disruptions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed vulnerabilities in mineral supply chains, forcing governments and corporations to adopt de-risking strategies, as economic and security priorities have become increasingly intertwined. African nations are for the first time in a position to manage their own minerals portfolios.

But will they?

Many African states are seeking to leverage their resources to ensure that their nations are involved not just with extraction but with processing and even manufacturing. But government planning that conflicts with corporate strategies can backfire. Grandiose job creation and industrialization “five-year plans” often do not pass the smell test for corruption.