Ukraine just destroyed a fleet of Russian bombers. Strategic aircraft, deep inside Russian territory, hit with no NATO planes, no Western special forces, just domestic ingenuity and a long-range drone campaign that rewrote the limits of the war.

And yet, all anyone can talk about now is what happens next.

Russia will respond; it always does, it won’t be targeted, it won’t be proportional, and it won’t even try to be strategic. It’ll be about humiliation. Optics. Fear. Civilian infrastructure will be hit, because that’s what the Kremlin strikes when it’s trying to reassert dominance: apartment buildings, power grids, and evacuation routes. These kinds of strikes won’t turn the tide of war but will make the West remember that Putin still knows how to make people bleed.

When it happens, and it will, the United States and its allies will do what they’ve done before: they’ll issue a statement, add another round of sanctions, maybe a visa ban on someone who hasn’t flown commercial in twenty years, a minor bank, perhaps, barred from a market it doesn’t use. There will be another arms package, more air defense systems, and more pledges of support. These actions won’t matter because the West is out of meaningful options, and everyone watching already knows it.