"Always bet on self-interest, it’s the only horse that’s trying,” is one of my late dad’s lines, and I first heard it from him aged six or so. By that logic, Nigel Farage (leader of Reform UK) and Ed Davey (leader of the Liberal Democrats) are the only triers—respectively leading and running third in the horserace of UK politics—and the only two ponies gaining ground.

Reform has now achieved—or bettered—30 percent in national polls and the most recent round of local council elections, held on May 1. It also squeaked a by-election win over Labour in Runcorn & Helmsby—by a mere six votes—on the same day. The Liberal Democrats, for their part, have beaten the Conservatives into fourth place both at the local elections and in more recent polling. Labour continues to run a (sickly) second, meanwhile, with 20 percent of the vote at the locals and an average of 22 percent in subsequent polls.

If this pattern—it first emerged at last year’s general election, despite Keir Starmer’s “loveless landslide,” of which more below—persists and grows until the 2029 poll, Nigel Farage will be Prime Minister and Ed Davey Leader of the Opposition. The traditional parties of British governance, Labour and Conservative, may be reduced to bit players.

Thirty percent—given the vagaries of British political geography—is what you need to be a serious party here. It’s easiest to explain the significance of breaking the 30 percent pain barrier by telling you what happens when parties miss it. Falling below 30 percent did in the Liberals in 1924 and 1929. It also did in the Liberal-SDP Alliance in 1983, where the combined parties got 25 percent of the vote but only 12 seats. And, last year, it gave the Conservatives what genuinely can be described as a “near death experience,” with the party only saved (23.7 percent vote share for 121 MPs) because some of its core support is geographically concentrated. 2024 was the worst result in the party’s history, and given the Tories are the oldest and most successful political party in the world, Kemi Badenoch, the party’s new leader, has been handed the most poisoned of chalices.