It is not every day that a country stands up to the People’s Republic of China, particularly one as small as Lithuania. But Lithuania has, in the past five years, thumbed its nose at China on a variety of issues. In 2021, the small Baltic nation banned “unreliable” manufacturers from its 5G markets, a shot at China’s Huawei. That same year, it also allowed Taiwan to open a representative office (a step down from a formal embassy) which included reference to it being “Taiwanese” (oftentimes, such offices use “Taipei” to avoid angering China). This prompted China to downgrade relations with Lithuania, and to impose trade penalties. Chinese ships, along with Russian-flagged vessels, have also partaken in apparently cutting undersea cables around the Baltics.

But now, the country’s government has reversed course, with Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas seeking to restore relations with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Part of this is simply due to a change in government: Paluckas’s centre-left party won over the centre-right in last year’s elections, and new governments usually mean new policies. However, there is likely another reason Paluckas may want to reverse course: he has received virtually no help from Brussels against China.

Yes, the European Commission formally took China to the World Trade Organisation over their trade imposition, but everyone knows that China would not actually adhere to WTO rules if they lost the case. Likewise, commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned China’s anti-Lithuania policies in a few speeches years ago, but failed to do much since. The EU did not even see the WTO case through until the end, quietly dropping the case at the last minute, earlier this year. Lithuania had signalled during the case that China had somewhat relented, which may have given the EU a reason to back out. But it is impossible to imagine that the Chinese would have relented at all unless they imagined the EU would stand with Lithuania throughout the case. At the same time, the European Commission is seeking trade talks with China, and will be hosting a major summit with the Chinese in July.