Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured since the war in Tigray ended in 2022. The region is now a tinderbox for conflict: Europeans need to intervene and pull the various opposing factions back from the brink.

Ethiopia and Eritrea are playing a dangerous game of chess; Tigray lies right in the centre of the board. The relationship between the two nations has deteriorated over the past few years, with the governments of both countries now indicating they are ready for conflict. In February, Eritrea launched a nationwide mobilisation, with Ethiopia following suit in March; reports suggest that heavy weaponry and mechanised units are being stationed close to the border in the Afar region.

The last conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which ran from 1998 until 2000, began as a border dispute but soon escalated. This time, Tigray could be the flashpoint: in 2022, after two years of brutal war, the Pretoria Agreement (otherwise known as the Tigray peace agreement) created a rift between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and left other warring parties disgruntled—including in Tigray. Now tensions within the region’s local leadership could drag Addis Ababa and Asmara into full-scale war. The international community—and especially Europe—needs to push for incremental and de-escalatory steps to fully phase out that risk.

Disrupting Conflict Flows

Europe has a strong interest in preventing war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. A conflict could further destabilise an already precarious situation in the Horn of Africa, likely sparking a humanitarian crisis which would drive refugee flows toward Europe and increase aid needs. War would also strain Ethiopia’s fragile internal stability and risk spreading violence across the Horn region, including worsening Sudan’s civil war due to Ethiopia and Eritrea having opposing alliances in the conflict. A second conflict would additionally threaten security in the Red Sea and pave the way for external powers such as Egypt, Iran and Russia to exploit the chaos. This, in turn, would challenge European influence and disrupt its geoeconomic stakes in the region.