Nobody predicts Donald Trump 100% of the time—that includes me.

When he decided to exempt electronics exports from the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, that wasn’t something I predicted.

I was never against it. Tariffs are best understood as levers through which outcomes can be achieved. Not policy in and of itself. I just never thought of it. I want to be honest about that.

When it happened, my initial instincts were to see how that move transforms the conditions of the game.

The initial thought was actually one of “controlling damage.”

How much does this dilute our play?

How much of China’s exports are electronics in any form? 35%.